Why is Memorial Day weather so fickle?

Joe and Heather Shilts, of Madison, wear headgear to shield themselves from the oppressive heat of the sun with temperatures in the 90s during the World’s Largest Brat Fest over the 2018 Memorial Day weekend. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, A Virtual Brat Fest is taking place this year at www.bratfest.com. (Amber Arnold, State Journal archives)

Memorial Day weekend weather can be absolutely glorious in Wisconsin or it can be rainy and cold.

Perhaps no other major holiday suffers from such a Jekyll-and-Hyde split in our expectations, and there are really good scientific reasons that underlie this duality.

By the end of May the Northern Hemisphere is just about over the prior winter and the cold air that characterized it is almost completely left to very high latitudes where the longer days act quickly to erode what is left even near the Pole.

The process of “shedding” the cold air from winter sometimes involves the excursion southward of regional cold air vortices in the mid-troposphere, which meteorologists refer to as “cut off” low pressure systems.

If such a cut off low parks itself over the Great Lakes states, the weather is often persistently showery and chilly. This is because the air at about 3 miles above the ground is colder than normal in such a circumstance and, coupled with the relatively warm surface temperatures of late May, the atmosphere is made less stable and the threat of showery weather increases substantially.

These cut off lows can persist for several days in a row. It turns out that the seasonal maximum for such cut off lows over our area runs from mid-May to mid-June. Consequently, Memorial Day weekend can be plagued by the presence of one.

Category: Climate, Meteorology, Seasons

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What makes the weather?

Pierre Seguin, of Madison, encounters morning fog in Yahara Place Park along Lake Monona on a winter morning, an example of the fundamental cause of weather: the effect of the sun on Earth. (Photo credit: John Hart, WI State Journal archives)

The term “weather” refers to the temporary conditions of the atmosphere, the layer of air that surrounds Earth and is referenced to a particular location and moment.

The fundamental cause of weather is the effect of the sun on Earth. At any time, only half of Earth is warmed by the sun, while Earth’s other side is shadowed. This causes uneven heating of Earth’s surface by the sun every day, with some regions warmer than others.

These temperature differences cause weather: winds, clouds and precipitation. Seasonal weather patterns result from variations in temperature caused by Earth’s tilt toward the sun in summer and away from the sun in winter. The distribution of water and land, and the topography of the land, also contribute to the shaping of Earth’s weather patterns.

Six main variables describe weather: temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind, humidity, precipitation and cloudiness. Knowledge of how these variables change, through the action of atmospheric processes governed by the laws of physics, help forecasters to predict weather.

In the modern era, meteorologists also use computer-generated forecasts as a guide, and interpret that guidance using their knowledge of weather processes.

Weather at one location is often related to weather at other locations. So, an important part of studying and understanding the weather is seeing how observations of the atmosphere relate to each other geographically. A list of numbers doesn’t help much; we need a map.

Meteorologists represent weather at a particular location and time using the station model. This model is a clever method of representing many weather variables, including cloud cover and type, wind speed and direction, temperature, dew point temperature, visibility, precipitation type and intensity, atmospheric pressure, and the change in pressure over the last three hours in one visual. A weather map is filled with symbols indicating different types of weather systems.

Category: Meteorology, Seasons

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What is a freeze and a hard freeze warning?

The National Weather Service issues frost and freeze warnings during the growing season, as cold temperatures can damage plants and impact agriculture, nurseries and home gardening. (Photo credit: Racine Journal Times archives)

A freeze warning is issued when the nighttime low temperatures across the whole county or forecast zone are predicted to be at or below 32 degrees.

A freeze warning is issued when low temperatures are expected to be 29 to 32 degrees, and a hard freeze warning is issued when temperatures are expected to be 28 degrees or less.

A frost, freeze or hard freeze watch may be issued a few days ahead of time if the potential exists for temperatures to fall into the appropriate thresholds.

The National Weather Service, or NWS, officially issues all weather warnings and watches. Those include frost, freeze and hard freeze watches and warnings. The NWS issues these types of watches and warnings after the beginning and before the end of the growing season. A watch or warning can be extended beyond that time if necessary.

The NWS issues these warnings as cold temperatures can damage plants and impact agriculture, nurseries and home gardening. The beginning of the growing season is set by the average date of the last freeze in spring. The end of the growing season is the average date of the first freeze in autumn.

The Midwest Regional Climate Center has maps that show the first and last days of the year for a freeze at go.madison.com/freeze.

Category: Meteorology, Seasons, Severe Weather

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When did computer-based weather forecasts begin?

Numerous computers and monitors enable National Weather Service operations.
(Photo Credit: NWS Green Bay)

Immediately after World War II, it became fashionable to imagine technologies that might allow human beings to control the weather. In fact, one goal advocated by influential scientists was actually to explode nuclear bombs in the right locations and in the right quantity to alter the weather in favorable ways.

Such an enterprise would require accurate forecasts of the weather thought possible by using brand new computer technology to make the millions of requisite calculations.

The drive to use computer models for weather forecasting was initiated at a secret meeting at U.S. Weather Bureau headquarters on the rainy morning of Jan. 6, 1946. After a series of successes and setbacks that mostly discouraged the broad meteorological community, the first operational computer-generated forecasts were issued on the afternoon of May 6, 1955. Thus, in less than 10 years the notion of computer-based forecasting went from dream to reality.

In the intervening 65 years, the combination of increased theoretical understanding both of meteorology and computational science, increased observational capacity (a good deal of which stems from satellite data), and sheer hard work on the part of a legion of dedicated scientists has resulted in our current forecasting capability.

The fact that our ubiquitous smart phones give everyone access to quite reasonable forecasts several days in advance is the end result of a what might be considered the greatest scientific advance of the second-half of the 20th century. So, as you consult your phone for the forecast, remember that one of the first baby steps in numerical weather prediction was taken 65 years ago Wednesday.

Category: Meteorology

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Is COVID-19 leading to cleaner air?

Many states have implemented lockdowns and shelter-in-place or “safer at home” orders to help contain the spread of the disease caused by the new coronavirus.

In these challenging times, our local businesses need your support. Find out how to get food, goods, services and more from those remaining open.

This response to the COVID-19 pandemic has reduced traffic and reduced production by industrial plants. This response has improved the quality of the air we breathe.

Atmospheric nitrogen dioxide is a by-product of burning fossil fuels for transportation and electricity generation. Nitrogen dioxide, or NO2, is also a harmful substance and is an indicator of air quality.

NASA manages instruments on satellites that can monitor global pollution. One of those instruments is the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). In addition to monitoring global ozone, OMI also makes measurements of the atmospheric concentration of NO2.

NASA N02 Data comparing March 2020 air quality to the 2015-2019 average.

The OMI measurements show less air pollution over the northeast United States in March 2020, when compared with the average values for the month of March between 2015 and 2019. The nitrogen dioxide levels are down about 30% over major metropolitan areas, including Washington, D.C., New York City, Philadelphia and Boston.

The European Space Agency (ESA) also manages satellites that observe and track air pollution. Those satellites also observed a sharp decrease in nitrogen dioxide over Italy after stay-at-home orders.

The reduced emissions suggest that people are taking steps to reduce their exposure by staying home. Measurements from satellites showed decreasing concentrations of NO2 over China in late January, coinciding with its nationwide quarantine.

Steve Ackerman and Jonathan Martin, professors in the UW-Madison department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, are guests on WHA radio (970 AM) at 11:45 a.m. the last Monday of each month. Tune in at https://wxguys.ssec.wisc.edu/listen2/

Category: Uncategorized

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