What is the status of the ozone hole?

The ozone hole is a region of exceptionally depleted ozone in the stratosphere over the Antarctic. Each year for the past few decades during the Southern Hemisphere spring (August-October), chemical reactions involving chlorine and bromine cause ozone to be rapidly destroyed. This depleted region is known as the “ozone hole.”

This map shows the size and shape of the ozone hole over the South Pole on the day of its 2025 maximum extent. Moderate ozone losses (orange) are visible amid areas of more potent ozone losses (red). Scientists describe the ozone “hole” as the area in which ozone concentrations drop below the historical threshold of 220 Dobson units. (Image credit: Lauren Dauphine of the NASA Earth Observatory, using data courtesy of NASA Ozone Watch and GEOS-5 data from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA GSFC)

Chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, are ozone-depleting chemicals that do not occur naturally. They were invented by chemists in 1928 and used as propellants in spray cans, in Styrofoam puffing agents and as coolants for refrigerators and air conditioners. In 1974, these human-made gases were first linked to ozone destruction. The United States banned the use of CFCs in 1978.

On May 16, 1985, British Antarctic Survey scientists published research that revealed a significant drop in ozone levels above Antarctica. In response to this discovery of an “ozone hole,” representatives from 23 nations met in Montreal, Canada. The resulting 1987 Montreal Protocol called for a 50% reduction in the usage and production of CFCs by the year 1999. This and subsequent international agreements, combined with the introduction of substitute chemicals, largely eliminated the use of CFCs worldwide. Although the global use of these chemicals has declined, they are very stable molecules and will stay in the atmosphere for over 50 years.

Satellite instruments provide routine global monitoring of ozone. The size of the Antarctic ozone hole is gradually decreasing. In 2025, the ozone hole was the fifth smallest since monitoring began in 1992. Because of the long life of CFCs, full recovery of the ozone hole to 1980 levels may not happen until 2070.

As the ozone hole continues to decline in size, we should reflect on the fact that it was only possible because of good science, industry adjustments and collective global cooperation over decades of sustained effort.

Steve Ackerman and Jonathan Martin, professors in the UW-Madison department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, are guests on WHA radio (970 AM) at noon the last Monday of each month. Send them your questions at stevea@ssec.wisc.edu or jemarti1@wisc.edu.

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How unusual was our recent snow and what might it portend?

With the exception of a freaky 12.1 inches of slushy snow that fell on Madison on March 25, 2023, the most recent 10-inch snowfall in the city was Dec. 20, 2012 — nearly 13 years ago!

Snowfall 11/29/2025 on Madison’s west side. (Photo credit: M Vasys, CIMSS)

So, it’s been a very long time since we have been visited by the kind of snowfall we saw on Nov. 29-30 — the total over the two days was 11.7 inches. More than that, the 9.3-inch accumulation officially registered at Dane County Regional Airport on Nov. 29 was the largest single-day November snowfall total ever, eclipsing the former record of 8.5 inches that fell on Nov. 30, 1940. So, not only did we finally see a hefty snowfall event after more than a decade of waiting, but we also set an early-season record as well.

Of course, none of this really bears on the complexion of the rest of the winter season. In fact, the month of December 2000 was both unusually cold and snowy, with an average temperature that was 14.1 degrees below normal accompanied by 35 inches of snowfall that was 23 inches above normal for the month. It appeared we were off to a great start for a cold, snowy winter. However, January and February followed with 12.1 inches and 5 inches below normal snowfall, respectively, and a middling 2 degrees above and 3.3 degrees below average in temperature.

So, only time will tell if this early wintry start will translate into a prolonged, robust winter season.

Steve Ackerman and Jonathan Martin, professors in the UW-Madison department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, are guests on WHA radio (970 AM) at noon the last Monday of each month. send them your questions at stevea@ssec.wisc.edu or jemarti1@wisc.edu.

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What is the largest snowflake?

An ice crystal can grow if the air around it has a relative humidity near 100%. The ice particle grows by water vapor deposition. Growth by deposition is generally slow. If you find nicely shaped snowflakes, they likely were produced by vapor deposition. A snowflake can be an individual ice crystal or an aggregate of ice crystals.

Temperature dependance on formation of ice crystals. (Image credit: Ackerman and Knox, “Meteorology – Understanding the Atmosphere”)

There are four basic shapes of ice crystals: the hexagonal plate, the needle, the column and the dendrite. The dendrites are hexagonal with elongated branches, or fingers, of ice; they most closely resemble what we think of as snowflakes. The temperature at which the crystal grows determines the shape.

Aggregation is the process by which ice crystals collide, get entangled or stick together and form a single larger ice particle. The probability that two crystals will stick together depends on the shape of the crystals. If two dendrites collide, it is likely that their branches will become entangled and the two crystals will stick together. When two plates collide there is a good chance that they will simply bounce off one another. Temperature also plays a role in aggregation. If the temperature of one crystal is slightly above freezing, it may be encased in a thin film of liquid water. If this particle collides with another crystal, the thin film of water may freeze at the point of contact and bond the two particles into one.

The record size for an aggregate snowflake occurred in January 1887 in Fort Keough, Montana, when some flakes were measured at 15 inches in diameter. That is about the size of a family sized pizza pie!

The world’s largest solitary ice crystal measured 10 millimeters, or 0.394 inches, from tip to tip. This dendritic-shaped crystal was photographed by Kenneth G Libbrecht on Dec. 30, 2003, during a gentle snowfall in Cochrane, Ontario.

Steve Ackerman and Jonathan Martin, professors in the UW-Madison department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, are guests on WHA radio (970 AM) at noon the last Monday of each month. Send them your questions at stevea@ssec.wisc.edu or jemarti1@wisc.edu.

Category: Meteorology, Phenomena, Severe Weather

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Despite record warmth, winter is coming

It is a fair bet that we would get near universal agreement that the weekend of November 15-16 was incredibly nice, even the slightly cooler Sunday that followed a truly remarkable Saturday. Both Milwaukee and Madison set all-time record high temperatures for November 15 at 69 and 68 degrees Fahrenheit, respectively.

This chart shows the daily and total snowfall amounts at the Dane County Airport compared with the normal total snowfall. The vertical lines and left axis represent the daily snowfall; the horizontal lines and right axis represent the snow depth, yearly total, and normal total snowfall. (Image credit: Wisconsin State Climatology Office)

Apart from the fact that each city recorded highs that were at least 20 degrees lower the very next day (46 for Milwaukee and 48 for Madison), the weekend was also noteworthy for another meteorological reason: At least for Madison, November 15 is the date on which the probability of precipitation falling as snow first reaches 50%. This means that, from here on out, if precipitation is in the forecast, there is at least an even chance that it will fall as snow. Only 10 days later comes the average date of our first 1-inch snowfall.

So if the thought occurred to you as you enjoyed an almost summery day on November 15 that we were way over our meteorological skis, you were exactly right.

Currently the tropical Pacific Ocean is undergoing a weak La Nina event, which means the ocean temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are slightly cooler than normal. Such an anomaly does not have a very consistent impact on the winter weather over our region, unlike its opposite, the El Nino.

In fact, the latest outlook for this winter (December, January and February), released by the Climate Diagnostics Center on October 16, suggests that we have “equal chances” of being warmer or colder than normal in southern Wisconsin. The same forecast suggests “leaning above” for our precipitation outlook for the winter.

Of course, neither of these outlooks precludes us being visited by either a big snow or a frigid cold air outbreak during our coming winter. However, it may be that the winter will feature only limited appearances by such events.

Steve Ackerman and Jonathan Martin, professors in the UW-Madison department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, are guests on WHA radio (970 AM) at noon the last Monday of each month. Send them your questions at stevea@ssec.wisc.edu or jemarti1@wisc.edu.

Category: Climate, Meteorology, Seasons

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What is lake effect snow?

Lake effect snow forms when cold air passes over the warmer water of a lake. As cold air moves over water, the lower layers are warmed and moistened by the lake below. This makes the air mass unstable. Evaporation increases the moisture content of the air mass, which is then precipitated in the form of snow on the land downwind.

The figure above shows the average annual snowfall for the Great Lakes region. In general,snow depth increases northward. This is expected because temperature usually decreases poleward. The other distinct feature is the difference in the amount of snow along the shoreline. (Image credit: Meteorology; Understanding the Atmosphere by Ackerman and Knox)

Maximum heat and moisture exchanges occur when the air is cold and the temperature difference between the air and the water is large. This condition tends to occur during early winter; this is when the most lake effect snow is produced. A long path across warm water by the air mass results in heavy precipitation over the land.

The longer the path, or “fetch,” the more the evaporation will increase along with greater potential for large snowfall amounts over the land on the downwind side of the lake. Hills can amplify the snowfall amounts by providing additional lifting. The location of a snowbelt along a particular lake is a function of the temperature difference between the air mass and the water, the fetch, and the terrain on the leeward side of the lake.

Lake effect snows are good for the economy of a region, particularly ski resorts. They also provide water for reservoirs and rivers. Too much lake effect snow can be hazardous, however; on October 12 to 13, 2006, Buffalo, New York was blitzed with 22.6 inches of snow in less than 1 day. Because trees had not yet shed their autumn leaves, the snow weighed down and broke tree branches. Nearly 1 million residents lost electrical power at the height of the storm because of falling trees and power lines.

Lake effect snow can bombard a location as long as all the ingredients—cold winds, warm water, and a long fetch—are present.

Steve Ackerman and Jonathan Martin, professors in the UW-Madison department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, are guests on WHA radio (970 AM) at noon the last Monday of each month. Send them your questions at stevea@ssec.wisc.edu or jemarti1@wisc.edu.

Category: Meteorology, Seasons, Severe Weather

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