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Category Archives: Seasons
What happens on the winter solstice?
Astronomical winter begins at the winter solstice, which happened this year for the Northern Hemisphere at 9:27 p.m. Central Standard Time on Thursday, Dec. 21. Winter south of the equator begins in June.
The Northern Hemisphere winter solstice occurs at the time the sun is at its southernmost point in the sky. At this time, the sun is overhead at noon on the Tropic of Capricorn, approximately 23.4 degrees south of the equator. Continue reading
What is the probability of a white Christmas in Madison?
Believe it or not, the National Weather Service has criteria for declaring a Christmas white: If there is at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at 6 a.m. on Christmas Day, the year has registered a white Christmas.
As might be expected, the probability of this condition being met varies widely across the state of Wisconsin. In the far north, the probability exceeds 90% and approaches a certainty in some locations, while in the south the historic probability runs at about 40%, which might strike Madisonians as unexpectedly low. Continue reading
Does fall give any hints about the intensity of the coming winter?
Each winter we keep track of the areal extent of air colder than 23 degrees Fahrenheit at the 850 mb pressure level (about 1 mile above sea-level) around the entire Northern Hemisphere. This measure allows us to characterize the intensity of the winter season with respect to the lower tropospheric temperature.
Over the past 75 seasons there has been a systematic decrease in the December-January-February, or DJF, average areal extent of about 4.6%, and this is an unequivocal sign of global warming, measured in the winter season. Continue reading
What is the National Climate Assessment?
The U.S. National Climate Assessment is mandated by the Global Change Research Act of 1990. The assessment is conducted about every four years and is an authoritative scientific analysis of climate change risks, impacts and responses in the U.S.
The nation this month completed the Fifth National Climate Assessment, or NCA5. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is the administrative agency for NCA5 and certifies that the report meets Information Quality Act and Evidence Act standards. The assessment is an extensive process that includes internal and external review from federal agencies, the general public and external peer review by a panel of experts. Continue reading
Category: Climate, History, Seasons, Severe Weather
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What is the status of sea ice this year?
The surface waters of our polar oceans freeze seasonally, forming a layer of sea ice that varies in thickness from centimeters to meters. The era of polar orbiting satellites has enabled the monitoring of sea ice distribution for more than four decades.
Seasons are reversed between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, so the sea ice maximum and minimum occur at different times of the year. Generally speaking, around mid-September the extent of the sea ice at the south pole is reaching a maximum, while in the Arctic it is approaching a minimum in September as our Northern Hemisphere summer comes to an end. Continue reading
