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Category Archives: Seasons
How far has summer beaten back the areal extent of cold air?
On more than one occasion in this column we have commented on the areal extent of air colder than 23 degrees Fahrenheit at 850 hPa (about 1 mile above the ground) as a measure of the extremity of winter.
In the middle of January, about 68 million square kilometers of the Northern Hemisphere are covered by air that cold at that level. Between about July 5 and July 20 that area shrinks to zero, and the complete absence of such air lasts only a very few days. At the beginning of August, we are just past the point in this summer that this area is beginning to increase again. Thus, despite the fact that we have been through a couple of really hot (and humid) weeks to end July, the return of winter has already begun in terms of this measure. Continue reading
Category: Meteorology, Seasons
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Does North America have a hurricane season?
Recently FEMA Director David Richardson claimed he was unaware that there is a hurricane season in the United States. There most certainly is such a season. The Atlantic hurricane season climatologically runs from June 1 through November 30, with the most active part of the season being mid-August through mid-October. Hurricanes are tropical storms over the Atlantic Basin (Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico). Based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, the average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. A developing tropical cyclone is given a name when it reaches sustained winds of 39 mph and it becomes a hurricane at 74 mph.
Hurricanes can occur outside this season but these are the months with favorable conditions for formation of the storms. One such condition is the ocean temperature exceeding 79.7F, which is common in the Atlantic Basin between June and November. Hurricanes have difficulty forming off the U.S. west coast due to cold water, cold currents, and unfavorable winds. Continue reading
Is there a windiest time of year in Madison?
With the pollen season peaking in southern Wisconsin one may wonder if there actually is a windiest time of year in Madison. Of course, a windy day can come along just about any time of year (the record gust of 83 mph in Madison occurred in June 1975) but the climatology suggests that March and April are the windiest months of the year with average wind speeds of 11.3 and 11.4 mph, respectively. November through February are not far behind logging a four-month average of 10.5 mph.
The fact that it’s windier during the cold season is not surprising as that time of year is characterized by the highest frequency of mid-latitude cyclone activity. Mid-latitude cyclones are large in scale, covering several states simultaneously, and are often associated with very large differences in sea-level pressure over small distances. It is these pressure differences that drive the wind. Continue reading
Category: Climate, Seasons, Severe Weather
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When will we have our last spring frost?
The latest frost in spring is important to gardeners as we seek to protect our garden plants from freezing temperatures. For Madison, based on temperature observations between 1940 and 2024, the latest frost occurred on 10 June 1972 and the earliest final frost occurred on 7 April 1955. The last frost date varies from year to year as it is strongly dependent on current weather conditions. To best estimate the last frost is to use statistics over a given time period. The median date for the last frost in Madison is May 5. Giving the median date of last frost means that there is still a 50% chance that a frost will occur after this date.
An analysis of Madison’s last frost date from 1940 – 2024 shows a trend consistent with the scientific expectations of global warming, that the last frost date now occurs earlier in the spring. Our nighttime minimum temperatures have been getting warmer and that too is consistent with the last frost date moving earlier. Continue reading
Why does the severe weather threat increase as spring and summer approach?
As the threat of winter snows recedes across the country, it is replaced by the threat of severe weather (i.e. thunderstorms with hail, damaging winds and tornadoes).
The severe weather season, though broadly spanning March through August across the United States, is actually quite regional. It begins in March in the southern states, moves to the southern Plains during April and May, and then further north toward the Great Lakes states during the summer. Continue reading
Category: Meteorology, Seasons, Severe Weather
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