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What is “The Old Farmer’s Almanac” forecast for winter?
“The Old Farmer’s Almanac” recently published its 2024-25 winter forecast. For the Upper Midwest region, it predicts winter will not be as cold as usual. The precipitation and snowfall forecast are for below average.
But don’t count on that forecast, as there is no proven skill. “The Old Farmer’s Almanac” does not share how it makes its forecast, so it cannot be judged scientifically. “The Old Farmer’s Almanac” also makes a weather forecast for specific time periods in a given season. Such detailed forecasts can be announced but are not trustworthy scientifically. Continue reading
Do oceans have heat waves?
As with the atmosphere, oceans can experience heat waves. The National Weather Service defines an atmospheric heat wave as a period of abnormally hot weather generally lasting more than two days. To be considered a heat wave, the temperatures must be outside the historical averages for a given area.
Marine heat waves are defined as any time the ocean temperatures are warmer than 90% of the previous observations for the region at a given time of year. Marine heat waves can last for weeks, months and even years. Continue reading
Is the Sun Playing a Role in the Earth’s Global Warming?
The sun helps maintain Earth’s climate to be warm enough for us to survive. Even subtle changes in Earth’s orbit around the sun have led to and ended past ice ages. This relationship between Earth’s climate and its orbit around the Sun is well known.
The sun’s activity and appearance goes though cycles, with one solar cycle taking 11 years to complete. The current cycle began at the end of 2019 and will reach peak levels of activity in 2025. During a solar cycle, the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth varies. These changes have a variety of effects on Earth’s atmosphere, including auroras. Continue reading
How can the Upper Midwest get such high dew points every year?
The dew point temperature is a measure of the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere and is also a good way to tell how uncomfortable you might feel on a hot day. Hot days and high water vapor contents are a serious health risk for some. Also, high water vapor content is a key fuel for severe thunderstorms.
There are three primary sources of water vapor that address this question: advection of water vapor largely from the Gulf of Mexico, evaporation over the Great Lakes, and transpiration from corn fields. The contribution from the Great Lakes in summer is minimal in comparison to the other factors, except maybe near the shorelines. Continue reading
Does the U.S. have a new weather satellite?
Weather satellites fly around Earth in two basic orbits: a geostationary Earth orbit (abbreviated as GEO) and a low Earth orbit (abbreviated as LEO). LEO satellites’ orbits often travel over the Earth’s polar regions, flying at an altitude of 530 miles. Geostationary satellites orbit Earth as fast as Earth spins and so hover over a single point above Earth at an altitude of about 22,300 miles. To maintain its position, a GEO satellite must be located over the equator. In contrast, polar satellites go around from pole to pole as the Earth rotates beneath the satellite; each orbit is slightly to the west of the previous one.
Satellite observations provide valuable information to meteorologists. The United States usually operates two geostationary satellites called GOES (Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite). One has a good view of the East Coast; the other is focused on the West Coast. They are a basic element of the U.S. weather monitoring and forecasting enterprise. The first GOES satellite, GOES-1, was launched in October 1975. Upgrades to the instruments are made as needed and the U.S. is currently in the fifth generation of GOES satellites. These are the GOES-R series, first launched in 2016. Continue reading
