Weather forecasting is a science that has drastically improved over the last 50 years. Modern weather forecasting goes back to the mid-20th century, when meteorologists began using numerical weather prediction (NWP) computer models to simulate atmospheric processes. These models rely on physics and mathematical equations to represent the behavior of the atmosphere.
Studies have shown that a five-day weather forecast today is as accurate as a one-day forecast was in 1980. Today, three-day predictions of a hurricane path are more accurate than the 24-hour forecasts of the 1970s and 1980s. In addition, today’s forecast is easily accessible on your smart phone.
Weather forecasting begins by observing the current state of the atmosphere. Today’s weather observing network is extensive. The network of Automated Surface Observing Systems routinely measures current weather at airports. A national network of Doppler radars monitor precipitation and weather balloons are launched twice daily across the country to measure the vertical structure of our atmosphere. Some commercial airlines equip their aircraft with sensors to take observations during takeoff, in flight, and through landing. Weather satellites, both geostationary and polar-orbiting systems, routinely observe our planet in real-time.
These weather observations are collected several times every day and around the globe and then converted into a current weather state that initiate a forecast. The two main weather prediction models operated by the National Weather Service have undergone recent improvements. The Global Forecast System (GFS) model has been upgraded with greater resolution that extends further out in time. The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model is a real-time 3-km resolution, hourly updated, cloud-resolving, convection-allowing atmospheric model.
Recent budget reductions to NOAA are reducing the observations needed to support these accurate weather prediction models. This budget impact results in fewer observations of the atmosphere and elimination of future satellite systems.
Steve Ackerman and Jonathan Martin, professors in the UW-Madison department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, are guests on WHA radio (970 AM) at 11:45 a.m. the last Monday of each month. Send them your questions at stevea@ssec.wisc.edu or jemarti1@wisc.edu.
