The Weather Guys

While successfully prosecuting the Civil War against the Confederacy, Gen. Ulysses S. Grant* had learned that weather information – even if NOT in the form of a forecast – was extremely valuable for operations.

Coincidentally, in the years following the war, Dr. Increase Lapham, a Milwaukee scientist, lobbied Milwaukee’s congressman, Gen. Halbert Paine, to push for establishment of a storm warning service for the Great Lakes. 

On February 2, 1870, Halbert introduced a Joint Congressional Resolution requiring the Secretary of War “to provide for taking meteorological observations at the military stations in the interior of the continent, and at other points in the States and Territories…and for giving notice on the northern lakes and on the seacoast, by magnetic telegraph and marine signals, of the approach and force of storms”.

On February 9, 1870 (155 years ago last Sunday) a sympathetic President Ulysses S. Grant* signed the resolution into law and what is now known as the National Weather Service was born. 

Thus, the service began its life within the U.S. Army Signal Service’s Division of Telegrams and Reports for the Benefit of Commerce.  Observations officially began on November 1, 1870.  Exactly a week later, on November 8, Dr. Lapham issued the Service’s first storm warning on the approach of a storm over Lake Michigan. 

On October 1, 1890, at the request of President Benjamin Harrison, Congress passed a law transferring the meteorological responsibilities of the Signal Service to the newly-created U. S. Weather Bureau which was housed in the Department of Agriculture.  The Weather Bureau became the National Weather Service in 1970 with the creation of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 

The NWS provides value, in terms of forecasts and warnings, that by reasonable estimates account for savings of well over $10B each year to commerce across our vast country.  It is important to be reminded of its exceptional value to us all given current developments in our national politics.

*Interesting footnote: An online version of General Grants memoirs is available at https://www.gutenberg.org/files/4367/4367-h/4367-h.htm 

Steve Ackerman and Jonathan Martin, professors in the UW-Madison department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, are guests on WHA radio (970 AM) at noon the last Monday of each month. Send them your questions at stevea@ssec.wisc.edu or jemarti1@wisc.edu.

Wind speed and direction are variables that change over space and time, and conditions can change considerably from month to month, as well as from year to year. Scientifically assessing any long-term changes in weather elements requires a long-term data set of accurate measurements.  Temperature data goes back hundreds of years, and even thousands of years, using ancillary data such as from tree rings.

Wind is a more difficult parameter to study and analyze. The observations of wind speed and direction need to be made at the same height above the surface. The type of surface also impacts the measurement, as the wind sensor should not be too close to trees or buildings.  Finally, large annual fluctuations make long-term trends difficult to detect.

Some research has indicated that between 1978 to 2010, the average global wind speeds decreased by approximately 2.3 percent per decade. A 2019 study found that after 2010, global average wind speeds had increased from 7 miles per hour to 7.4 miles per hour.

To address this question with respect to our state, we turned to the Wisconsin State Climate Office and send thanks to assistant state climatologist Dr. Ed Hopkins for his assistance. His careful analysis used wind observations from 1948 to 2023/24 for Madison, Milwaukee, La Crosse, Eau Claire, and Green Bay. The trend over the entire period showed a decreasing average wind speed at all the stations.  The observations at La Crosse also had a decreasing trend but also had more variation over the period.  A large portion of these decreasing trends in wind speed is exhibited in the period prior to the installation of Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS), which occurred in the mid-1990s. After that installation, the trend in decreasing wind was much smaller or showed nearly no trend in those weather stations.

Steve Ackerman and Jonathan Martin, professors in the UW-Madison department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, are guests on WHA radio (970 AM) at noon the last Monday of each month. Send them your questions at stevea@ssec.wisc.edu or jemarti1@wisc.edu.