Can ChatGPT forecast the weather?

Posted on July 24, 2023 by WeatherGuys Editor

Yes, ChatGPT can create weather forecasts, but the real question will be their accuracy.

Hurricane specialists at NOAA study satellite imagery and computer models to make their forecasts. (Photo credit: Mike Mascaro, NOAA)

People have started exploring how to use ChatGPT and other artificial intelligence methods to experiment with forecasts. This is not surprising as we have always needed weather forecasts and humans have used many techniques over the decades. Some of the earliest forms of forecasts were short rhymes, and, although memorable, were often of uneven quality.

Forecasts improved as weather observations became more available and consistent. A statistical forecast uses historical data to project what future weather could be based on what happened in the past with similar conditions. A trend forecast assumes that weather will change based on the movement and approach of current weather features. A trend forecast assumes that although the weather features are moving, they are not otherwise changing. Numerical weather prediction is a basis for today’s modern forecasts, which use mathematical models to predict the weather based on current weather conditions.

ChatGPT, or any AI approach, can forecast weather patterns that are statistically plausible given previous events. AI methods are being developed and applied to radar observations for short-term forecasting of precipitation. Observations of high-quality weather radar are freely available across the U.S. An AI adoption of a trend forecast to radar observations has the potential to account for changing speed, size, intensity, and direction of movement of the storm.

Given the capability of AI to handle large data volumes, upcoming AI weather forecasts are likely to combine numerical weather predictions with current and recent weather observations to make a forecast.

There are risks in relying on AI forecasts. All AI models require data training sets. Those data records might not include extreme events. AI systems can be unpredictable when the existing conditions have never, or rarely, been encountered.

AI weather forecasting requires the same constraints as all forecasts — accurate and consistent observations.

Steve Ackerman and Jonathan Martin, professors in the UW-Madison department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, are guests on WHA radio (970 AM) at 11:45 a.m. the last Monday of each month. Send them your questions at stevea@ssec.wisc.edu or jemarti1@wisc.edu.

Category: History, Meteorology

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Winter in July?

Posted on July 17, 2023 by WeatherGuys Editor

On more than one occasion in this column we have commented on the areal extent of air colder than 23 degrees about 1 mile above the ground as a measure of the extremity of winter.

In the middle of January, about 68 million square kilometers of the Northern Hemisphere are covered by air that cold at that level. Between about July 5 and July 20 that area shrinks to zero, and the complete absence of such air lasts only a very few days.

We are just past the point in this summer when that area is beginning to increase again. Thus, despite the fact that we have been through a couple of really hot and humid weeks this July, the return of winter has already begun in terms of this measure.

This is largely because the number of daylight hours has already begun to decrease — noticeably here in Madison. At every latitude north of 66.5N, however, the sun was out for 24 hours long on the day of the Summer Solstice, June 21. Ever since, the spectre of nighttime has been creeping poleward with the daylight decreasing ever so slightly just above the Arctic Circle. The associated nighttime cooling is greater during a longer night, resulting in the gradual increase in the amount of cold air covering the Northern Hemisphere.

So, if these past couple of weeks have been a bit too much for you, perhaps some solace can be found in the fact that the tide is already, however imperceptibly, beginning to turn.

Steve Ackerman and Jonathan Martin, professors in the UW-Madison department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, are guests on WHA radio (970 AM) at 11:45 a.m. the last Monday of each month. Send them your questions at stevea@ssec.wisc.edu or jemarti1@wisc.edu.

Category: Meteorology, Seasons

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Do hurricanes heat the ocean?

Posted on July 10, 2023 by WeatherGuys Editor

Hurricanes form over warm waters. The evaporation of the warm ocean waters condenses to form clouds and precipitation releasing latent heat energy that helps to maintain the storm.

A general rule of thumb is that hurricanes will not form unless the water temperature is at least 80 degrees. Photographs of hurricanes over the ocean clearly show that hurricanes churn water at the surface, mixing it with cooler waters below.

Hurricanes draw their energy from warm sea surface waters. As lower strata of the ocean warm up along with the rest of the planet, deeper waters once cool enough to weaken hurricanes at the surface, are now becoming warm enough to strengthen them. (Illustration: Natalie Renier, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

Measurements also show that hurricanes can push heat deep below the sea surface. The mixing of heat into the ocean by hurricanes occurs by the strong winds and also by underwater waves produced by the storm. Ocean measurements before and after hurricanes show that these waves transport heat to depths where the heat is stored far below the surface. The depth is such that the heat cannot by quickly released into the atmosphere. In fact, the deep ocean currents can transport that heat thousands of miles away from the storm.

One recent study found that a hurricane traveling across the western Pacific Ocean could supply warm water to the coast of Ecuador years later. The heat transported deep in the ocean by the storm doesn’t resurface in the vicinity of the hurricane.

The impacts of hurricanes on climate will depend on the depth to which the storms deposits the heat. Mixing of cooler waters below the ocean surface by the hurricane winds cools the sea surface temperature. The heat transported deep in the ocean from hurricanes may reside there for decades without returning to the surface. Hurricanes can help to slow down global warming by transporting heat deep in the ocean where it is stored.

Steve Ackerman and Jonathan Martin, professors in the UW-Madison department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, are guests on WHA radio (970 AM) at 11:45 a.m. the last Monday of each month. Send them your questions at stevea@ssec.wisc.edu or jemarti1@wisc.edu.

Category: Meteorology, Tropical

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Were May and June unusually dry in Madison?

Posted on July 3, 2023 by WeatherGuys Editor

While we all contended with the remarkable and dangerous smoke in the sky this past week, we also wrapped up a record dry spell in Madison’s history.

The 61 days of May and June 2023 were the driest May and June ever, with a paltry 2.01 inches of total precipitation falling. The next closest rival on this ignominious list occurred in May and June 1992, when only 2.65 inches of rain fell during the two months. Individually, May and June were the sixth-driest May and June in Madison’s history, suggesting how rare it is for both of them to be so void of precipitation.

The consequences of this extended dry period are everywhere — lawns are brown and looking like it’s mid-August, the ground is hard and cracking in some spots, and leaves are falling from some trees well before their time. Over the course of these two dry months, we have fallen 7.37 inches behind in precipitation — May/June averages 9.38 inches.

Since the annual average for the year is 36.9 inches, even if the rest of the year finds its way back to normal, we will end up just shy of 20% below our normal annual precipitation.

As we have said in prior columns, this local dryness is part of a larger regional dryness that has sparked an early initiation to eastern Canada’s wildfire season, which has polluted our skies intermittently during the past month. Perhaps the only good thing about this record dryness is that it seems to have kept the mosquitoes at bay for the time being.

Steve Ackerman and Jonathan Martin, professors in the UW-Madison department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, are guests on WHA radio (970 AM) at 11:45 a.m. the last Monday of each month. Send them your questions at stevea@ssec.wisc.edu or jemarti1@wisc.edu.

Category: Climate, History, Meteorology, Seasons

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What holds the clouds up in the air and what makes some clouds appear to be fluffy on top but flat on the bottom?

Posted on June 26, 2023 by WeatherGuys Editor
Buoyant air causes the tiny liquid water droplets that form clouds to bubble to the top, where they eventually cool and form larger drops that fall to earth. (Photo credit: Steven A. Ackerman)

One of our readers awoke to some beautiful clouds in the summer sky recently and two excellent questions popped into her mind: What holds the clouds up in the air and what makes some clouds appear to be fluffy on top but flat on the bottom?

Clouds are composed of tiny liquid water droplets — whose diameters are about the width of a human hair — and tiny shards of ice in a variety of shapes, or habits. Whether a cloud is mostly liquid water droplets or ice particles depends, as you might guess, on the ambient temperature of the air in the cloud.

Tiny cloud liquid water droplets can remain in the liquid state to temperatures as low as about 14 degrees and when they do they are known as supercooled liquid water droplets. These droplets feel the downward directed force of gravity just like a baseball or a watermelon would. Because the droplets are so small, and therefore have small masses, the gravitational force can easily be balanced by an upward directed friction force resulting from the interaction of the droplets with the air molecules around them and so the droplets remain suspended — this is what holds clouds up in the air.

When these droplets grow, by a variety of interesting processes, they gain water mass, and eventually the gravitational force overwhelms the friction force, and the now larger droplets fall to the surface.

The fluffy appearance of the tops of some clouds are evidence of convection — that is, the air parcels within the cloud are buoyant and literally bubble to the top. As the air rises, it cools by expansion as it encounters environments with lower and lower pressure the higher it goes. This cooling increases the relative humidity of the air, and once the relative humidity gets to 100% condensation of the invisible water, vapor begins to produce the cloud liquid water droplets.

The bottom of clouds often appears flat because the first level at which rising air parcels begin to condense is usually rather uniform over a given region. This level is known as the lifted condensation level — that is, the level at which lifted air parcels first begin to experience condensation.

Steve Ackerman and Jonathan Martin, professors in the UW-Madison department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, are guests on WHA radio (970 AM) at 11:45 a.m. the last Monday of each month. Send them your questions at stevea@ssec.wisc.edu or jemarti1@wisc.edu.

Category: Meteorology, Uncategorized

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