What is the meteorological origin of these beautiful fall days?

The beautiful, crystal clear early fall days that we have recently enjoyed are characteristic of September in southern Wisconsin.

Such days are often quite cool to start, with morning temperatures in the 40s, but often warm by late afternoon when temperatures can soar to the mid- to high 70s.

Such conditions are associated with regions of high pressure either migrating past us or developing over us.

These high pressure regions are characterized by gentle, persistent sinking of the air from the middle troposphere to the surface – most times are rates of only about 150 feet per hour.

The sinking forces the air to warm by compression which reduces the relative humidity, accounting for the deep blue skies.

The clear skies, extending into the overnight hours in such episodes, allow for substantial cooling of the surface by radiation so that the temperature can be quite low by the time the sunrise occurs again, more than 12 hours later.

(Don’t forget that by late September, after the equinox, the night is longer than the day).

The development of regions of high pressure is now well understood to be associated with the passage of upper-tropospheric “ridges” in the flow.

These ridges are regions where the upper-level flow of air is constrained to turn clockwise over horizontal distances of hundreds of miles.

On the eastern edge of such clockwise turning flow regions, the laws of physics compel the air to gently sink and a high-pressure region is either newly created or sustained in that location.

The unsettled weather that accompanies a surface low-pressure region compels us to refer to it as a “storm.”

Though it is not common to refer to high-pressure regions as “storms,” they are, just like their low pressure counterparts, spawned by the passage of upper-tropospheric waves.

In fact, the longest-lived storm in the solar system (as far as we know) is a region of high pressure – Jupiter’s Great Red Spot.

Category: Meteorology, Seasons

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Do September temperatures foretell the nature of the winter?

After the recent abnormally cold period, which has left us 3.2 degrees colder than normal thus far in September, a lot of people have been wondering if September temperatures can be a harbinger of what is to come in the winter.

Everyone recalls last winter as a persistently cold season during which we experienced a four-month period (December 1 – March 31) with an average temperature that was 7.44 degrees below normal. Interestingly, last September was 2.7 degrees above normal and last October was 1.0 degrees above normal.

Records from the preceding four winters (2009-10 through 2012-13) provide an interesting, though inconclusive, answer to this question. Of those four prior winters (December through February only), two were colder than normal — 2009-10 by 0.26 degrees and 2010-11 by 1.50 degrees. In 2010-11, September and October averaged 1.67 degrees warmer than normal, while in 2009-10 those same months were 1.14 degrees colder than normal.

The winters of 2011-12 and 2012-13 were 7.01 and 1.32 degrees warmer than normal. Their corresponding Septembers/Octobers were 0.74 degrees warmer and 0.35 degrees colder than normal.

Thus, based upon a very small but recent sample, one might tentatively conclude that abnormal cold or warmth in September and October has little to do with the nature of the coming winter. The most recent three-month outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center is equally inconclusive for the Midwest, suggesting equal chances for colder- or warmer-than-normal conditions for our months of September, October and November.

Category: Climate, Meteorology, Seasons

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What is an equinox?

The equinoxes (from “equi,” meaning “equal,” and “nox,” or “night”) occur when the sun’s rays strike the equator at noon at an angle of 90 degrees.

In the Northern Hemisphere, the vernal or spring equinox occurs around March 20, and the autumnal or fall equinox occurs on September 22 or 23.

During the equinoxes, the sun is above the horizon for all locations on Earth for 12 hours. This year the fall equinox occurs on Sept. 22 at 9:29 p.m.

The tilt of the Earth’s axis is responsible for the seasonal variation in the amount of solar energy distributed at the top of the atmosphere and plays a key role in determining the seasonal variation in surface temperature.

The Earth’s axis of rotation is tilted at an angle of 23.5 degrees from its orbital plane. Because the Earth’s axis of spin always points in the same direction — toward the North Star — the orientation of the Earth’s axis to the sun is always changing as the Earth orbits around the sun.

As this orientation changes throughout the year, so does the distribution of sunlight on the Earth’s surface at any given latitude, and this is the cause of the seasons.

On the equinoxes, the axis is not pointed at or away from the sun. This results in all areas experiencing a little more than 12 hours of daylight.

The September equinox is considered by many to be a sign of the beginning of fall in the Northern Hemisphere, and a marker of spring in the Southern Hemisphere.

Category: Meteorology, Seasons

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How does the Farmer’s Almanac make its forecasts?

The Farmer’s Almanac makes seasonal forecasts and recently came out with its winter forecast.

The Farmer’s Almanac does not share how it makes its forecasts so it cannot be judged scientifically. There is no proven skill of its forecast accuracy.

It also makes a weather forecast for specific time periods in a given season.

Such detailed forecasts are not trustworthy scientifically.

Seasonal weather forecasting is a modern-day science challenge. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center also makes seasonal forecasts.

They explain the underlying principles of their forecast and provide validation of their forecasts publicly.

These modern day seasonal forecasts rely on the known relationships between climate and some key forcing mechanisms, such as El Niño.

An El Niño is a periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean between South America and the Date Line.

This warming is a natural variation of the ocean and is used to predict departures from average conditions rather than to make specific weather forecasts.

For example, a year with a strong El Niño leads to less snowfall than average in Wisconsin.

These seasonal forecasts also take into account the climatic impacts of other global oscillations.

These relations are uncovered by research conducted by atmospheric scientists, and while we understand these relationships, we cannot yet predict the occurrence of these key forcing mechanisms, such as the development of an El Niño.

Currently, there are no strong global patterns developing that allow for a confident prediction of our winter weather conditions.

There are equal chances our wintertime weather conditions will result in temperatures above, below or at average.

Category: Climate, Seasons

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How does the wind make waves on water?

Waves form as the wind’s energy is transferred to the surface of water.

A weak gusty wind can make ripples appear on smooth water. These ripples will dissipate quickly once the wind stops.

The size of a wind-generated wave depends on the following:

• The wind speed. The stronger the winds, the larger the force and, thus, the bigger the wave. The wind must also be constant, not just a wind gust here or there.

• The duration of the winds. The longer the wind blows over the open water, the larger the waves.

• The fetch. This is the distance of open water over which the wind blows. The longer the fetch, the larger the waves.

• The depth of the water also plays a role, as it is difficult to generate large waves in shallow water.

Waves in a deep lake or sea can be taller and last much longer.

Waves in the open ocean have been measured to be larger than 100 feet in height.

Waves in the Great Lakes have reached heights of 35 feet. The storm Sandy generated waves on Lake Michigan of 21.7 feet.

High sustained winds from one direction can push water up at one end of the lake, resulting in a storm surge.

Weather can also cause a seiche on the Great Lakes. In French, the word “seiche” means “to sway back and forth.”

An atmospheric disturbance causes waves to slosh back and forth between shores of the lake basin resulting in huge fluctuations of water levels in a short period of time.

Category: Phenomena

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