Where are we on hurricane season thus far?

The Atlantic basin hurricane season is off to a roaring start in 2020.

The first nine named storms of the 2020 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season.
Credit: CIMSS, SSEC and NASA

The official season stretches from June 1 through Nov. 30. One measure of the activity of a season is the number of named storms — those that reach or exceed sustained winds of 39 mph — that season accrues.

This year, for the sixth year in a row, Atlantic tropical storms formed before the official start of the season with Arthur and Bertha developing in May.

NOAA had predicted an abnormally active hurricane season this year with as many as 19 named storms, with three to six of them likely to develop into fearsome Category 3, 4 or 5 storms.

With the development of Hurricane Isaias on Friday, we are already at nine for the season as we are just about to enter the most active part of it. An average hurricane season in the Atlantic produces 12 named storms with about six of those becoming hurricanes.

Among the most important considerations regarding these storms is how many of them will strike land and where — nearly impossible to predict on the seasonal time scale.

Certainly, a higher number of total storms would suggest a greater chance of at least one of them making a major landfall so an abnormal frequency is of concern.

Recent years make this point well. The 2010 Atlantic season had 19 named storms, the third most of any season since 1851. However, only one storm, and only at tropical storm strength, made landfall in the U.S. that year.

In contrast, the 1992 season had only seven named storms but one of those was Hurricane Andrew which devastated south Florida as one of only four Category 5 storms to ever make landfall in the US.

Category: Meteorology, Severe Weather, Tropical

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What is the heat index?

When the temperature is high but the relative humidity is low, the heat index can be less than the actual temperature. (Photo credit: Steve Apps, State Journal archives)

The heat index indicates how hot it feels. It is expressed as a function of air temperature and the relative humidity.

The heat index temperature is for standing in the shade and light winds; when exposed to direct sunlight, the heat index value can be increased by up to 15 degrees F.

When our bodies get hot we cool down by sweating. The sweating does not directly cool our bodies; it is the evaporation of the sweat that cools us down.

If the air has a high humidity, then the rate of evaporation is reduced. That hampers the body’s ability to maintain a nearly constant internal body temperature. That is why we are uncomfortable on hot, muggy days.

When the temperature is high but the relative humidity is low, the heat index can be less than the actual temperature. That’s because cooling by evaporation of sweat is very efficient in these situations.

However, high relative humidities prevent evaporation and make it seem hotter than it really is because our bodies cannot cool down. In these cases, the heat index is greater than the actual temperature.

The National Weather Service (NWS) will initiate alert procedures when the heat index is expected to exceed 105° to 110°F (depending on local climate) for at least two consecutive days.

The NWS will issue a heat advisory when the heat index is predicted to be 100°F. You are then advised to limit vigorous outdoor activity and drink plenty of fluids. Never leave children or pets in a locked car.

A heat wave is a period of abnormally and uncomfortably hot and usually humid weather.

The World Meteorological Organization defines a heat wave as when the daily maximum temperature for more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 9°F.

Category: Meteorology, Seasons

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Winter in July?

On more than one occasion in this column we have commented on the areal extent of air colder than 23 degrees about 1 mile above the ground as a measure of the extremity of winter.

In the middle of January, about 68 million square kilometers of the Northern Hemisphere are covered by air that cold at that level. Between about July 5 and July 20 that area shrinks to zero, and the complete absence of such air lasts only a very few days.

We are just past the point in this summer where that area is beginning to increase again. Thus, despite the fact that we have been through a couple of really hot (and humid) weeks this July, the return of winter has already begun in terms of this measure. This is largely because the number of daylight hours has already begun to decrease — noticeably here in Madison.

Above the Arctic Circle, the sun travels a tilted circle around the sky on the summer solstice but never sets below the horizon.

At every latitude north of 66.5N, however, the sun was out for 24 hours long on the day of the Summer Solstice (June 21). Ever since, the specter of nighttime has been creeping poleward with the daylight decreasing ever so slightly just above the Arctic Circle. The associated nighttime cooling is greater during a longer night, resulting in the gradual increase in the amount of cold air covering the Northern Hemisphere.

So, if these past couple of weeks have been a bit too much for you, perhaps some solace can be found in the fact that the tide is already, however imperceptibly, beginning to turn.

Category: Meteorology, Seasons

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What is the heat index?

NOAA’s Heat Index

The heat index indicates how hot it feels.

It is expressed as a function of air temperature and the relative humidity. The heat index temperature is for standing in the shade and light winds; when exposed to direct sunlight, the heat index value can be increased by up to 15 degrees.

When our bodies get hot we cool down by sweating. The sweating does not directly cool our bodies; it is the evaporation of the sweat that cools us down. If the air has a high humidity, then the rate of evaporation is reduced. This hampers the body’s ability to maintain a nearly constant internal body temperature. This is why we are uncomfortable on hot, muggy days.

When the temperature is high but the relative humidity is low, the heat index can be less than the actual temperature. This is because cooling by evaporation of sweat is very efficient in these situations. However, high relative humidities prevent evaporation and make it seem hotter than it really is because our bodies cannot cool down. In these cases, the heat index is greater than the actual temperature.

The National Weather Service (NWS) initiates alert procedures when the heat index is expected to exceed 105 to 110 degrees, depending on local climate, for at least two consecutive days. The NWS will issue a heat advisory when the heat index is predicted to be 100 degrees. You are then advised to limit vigorous outdoor activity and drink plenty of fluids. Never leave children or pets in a locked car.

A heat wave is a period of abnormally and uncomfortably hot and usually humid weather. The World Meteorological Organization defines a heat wave as when the daily maximum temperature for more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 9 degrees.

Category: Meteorology, Seasons, Severe Weather

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What is mud rain?

Mud rain is rain that contains a noticeable concentration of particles of sand or dust.

Saharan dust collected in a rain gauge in the Caribbean.
Credit:@CLIMATEwBORDERS

The soil can be of local origin or it can originate from very distant regions. As rain falls through the dust layer, the raindrops collect the soil particles. When the rain droplets hit objects on the ground, the water evaporates and leaves behind dry mud spots.

Another consequence can be health hazards to those with respiratory issues because, as the fine particles of dust settle out, they can reduce the quality of the air we breathe.

At the end of June, a large dust cloud arrived in North America from the Sahara Desert. Micrometer-sized soil particles from the desert were lifted by the wind to high altitudes and transported over thousands of miles. The dust was carried by atmospheric circulation patterns across the Atlantic Ocean. Satellite observations tracked the movement of this dust, or aerosol, from Africa, across the Atlantic Ocean and into the Upper Midwest. 

 Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) measured by satellites outlined dust flowing from Africa over the Atlantic Ocean to North America in June 2020. Credit: NASA

Desert soil is carried across the ocean every year, but this particular June dust plume spanned thousands of miles. Iron and other nutrients in dust can lead to phytoplankton blooms as the dust settles into nutrient-limited waters. As the dust covered multiple regions of the southern U.S., it turned daytime skies very hazy and sunsets red and orange.

Dust can be transported across the globe. Desert dust from the Sahara and Gobi deserts has been observed on the ice sheet of Greenland. Ice cores in Greenland provide a history of the dust deposition as they appear as layers in the ice. The mineralogy of the dust in the ice allows scientists to trace the desert of origin. The source also allows scientists to determine global wind patterns from thousands of years ago.

Steve Ackerman and Jonathan Martin, professors in the UW-Madison Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (AOS), are guests on WHA radio (970 AM) at 11:45 a.m. the last Monday of each month.

Category: Meteorology, Phenomena

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