Recently FEMA Director David Richardson claimed he was unaware that there is a hurricane season in the United States. There most certainly is such a season. The Atlantic hurricane season climatologically runs from June 1 through November 30, with the most active part of the season being mid-August through mid-October. Hurricanes are tropical storms over the Atlantic Basin (Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico). Based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, the average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. A developing tropical cyclone is given a name when it reaches sustained winds of 39 mph and it becomes a hurricane at 74 mph.
Hurricanes can occur outside this season but these are the months with favorable conditions for formation of the storms. One such condition is the ocean temperature exceeding 79.7F, which is common in the Atlantic Basin between June and November. Hurricanes have difficulty forming off the U.S. west coast due to cold water, cold currents, and unfavorable winds.
In May, in preparation for hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) uses their state-of-the-art hurricane forecast model to predict if the coming season will be at, above, or below the average number of storms. This year, NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, with a 30% chance of a near-normal activity in the Atlantic Basin.
Hurricanes pose life-threatening risks to coastal and inland communities, with water hazards historically the most destructive and lethal. It is therefore important to track, monitor, and be prepared for these storms. Weather satellites provide crucial observations of hurricanes. Working closely with NOAA, university scientists develop techniques to convert large amounts of satellite data into practical information and guidance for weather forecasters. Their tools track storms, identify the strongest winds, and detect storm intensification.
Steve Ackerman and Jonathan Martin, professors in the UW-Madison department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, are guests on WHA radio (970 AM) at noon the last Monday of each month. Send them your questions at stevea@ssec.wisc.edu or jemarti1@wisc.edu.
