Daily Archives: October 7, 2015

There are two important components of hurricane forecasting: the hurricane track (or where it is going) and hurricane intensity (or how and if its winds are increasing). Track forecasts have improved over the last two decades; intensity forecasts have not improved.

In 1992, when Hurricane Andrew hit Florida, the average three-day forecast error in hurricane track was about 300 miles. Today, a six-day forecast of the typical hurricane track error is now less than 200 miles, more accurate than the three-day forecast was 23 years ago. Continue reading →