What is Groundhog Day and do the forecasts work?

Long before computers, the Weather Channel and the Internet, humans needed weather forecasts. Farmers and sailors particularly needed to know if storms were approaching. Over time, various folklore forecasts, often in the form of short rhymes, were devised and passed down through the generations. Although memorable, the folklore forecasts are of uneven quality — some good, others bad.

Groundhog Day is an example of predicting the weather based on folklore. If the groundhog comes out of its hole and sees its shadow, we are in store for 40 more days of winter. Of course, after Feb. 2, there are only 47 days left of astronomical winter — which ends on or about March 21.

The roots of Groundhog Day go back to the sixth century. Feb. 2 is 40 days after Christmas and is known as Candlemas. On this day, candles that are used for the rest of the year are blessed. This is also about the mid-point in winter, in meteorological not astronomical terms. The forecast rhyme goes:

If Candlemas Day is bright and clear

There’ll be two winters in that year;

But if Candlemas Day is mild or brings rain,

Winter is gone and will not come again.

If the day is bright and clear, the groundhog “sees” his shadow and we have more winter. Of course, the weather conditions on Feb. 2 at a single location — like Punxsutawney, Pa., or Sun Prairie — tell us very little about the weather for the rest of the winter season.

As for accuracy, the predictions are correct about 40 percent of the time — vastly inferior to what is delivered by modern science.

Right or wrong, they are fun community celebrations.

Category: Meteorology
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